Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c98…a0df other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$46
sports 25% −$23
politics 9% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage126d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $394 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $290 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $196 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $242 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $40 43m
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 5h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $40 7h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 9h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $40 11h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $40 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 17h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 20h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 20h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $40 23h
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $41 31h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 34h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $41 36h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 41h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $41 41h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $41 43h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $41 45h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $41 46h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.66 (match) · 1383 history records