Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c99…9729 crypto 578 markets active 14h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate76%440W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$62
14 days−$48
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$85
crypto 49% +$48
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 +2.7% -7.0% 74% 63% -13.1%
≤30d 558 +3.5% -6.3% 77% 62% -8.9%
≤90d 578 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 62% -9.4%
all 578 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 62% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 62% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 36% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 18% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses440 / 138
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage34d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1445 history records