Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c99…f980 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-3%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$402
sports 13% +$416
other 11% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +18.4% +7.2% 52% 52% -10.7%
≤30d 27 +18.4% +7.2% 52% 52% -10.7%
≤90d 27 +18.4% +7.2% 52% 52% -10.7%
all 27 +18.4% +7.2% 52% 52% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 52% -10.7%
10% -3.1% 48% -19.2%
15% -12.5% 48% -27.0%
20% -21.0% 44% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$170 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $520 −$251 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $524 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $316 +$235 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $314 +$650 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$35 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $315 +$160 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$237 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 18 $103 +$202 +196%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026 Jun 17 $56 +$208 +374%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $69 +$55 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 +$153 +249%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $40 +$28 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $133 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $479 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $237 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $453 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $67 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $390 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $134 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $211 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $35 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $71 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $88 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $551 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $474 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records