Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7C 0x7c9c…5c40 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+7%) realized +$100 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$139
crypto 25% −$38
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 75% +3.0%
≤30d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 75% +3.0%
≤90d 9 +7.7% -2.6% 78% 78% +1.1%
all 9 +7.7% -2.6% 78% 78% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 78% +1.1%
10% -11.9% 22% -8.6%
15% -20.4% 22% -17.4%
20% -28.2% 22% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage41d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $428 +$67 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 +$31 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $108 +$56 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? Jun 21 $70 −$42 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $41 +$7 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 19 $39 +$20 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $56 −$31 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 12m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 14m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 28m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 82¢ $200 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $204 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 63¢ $231 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $164 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? SELL No 46¢ $27 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 66¢ $42 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? SELL No 100¢ $42 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 75¢ $9 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 75¢ $3 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? SELL No 77¢ $7 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 81¢ $29 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? BUY No 12¢ $3 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? SELL No 11¢ $3 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? BUY No 36¢ $10 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 41 history records