Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ca2…0bea sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$260 (-30%) realized −$264 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.2% -35.9% 30% 30% -38.3%
≤30d 10 -29.2% -35.9% 30% 30% -38.3%
≤90d 10 -29.2% -35.9% 30% 30% -38.3%
all 10 -29.2% -35.9% 30% 30% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.9% 30% -38.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 20% -44.2%
15% -47.7% 20% -49.6%
20% -52.8% 0% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$51 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 81¢ 81¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 80¢ 86¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 −$26 -42%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $112 −$103 -92%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $73 +$30 +42%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 20 $221 −$118 -53%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $57 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 81¢ $65 14m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL Team Nemesis 55¢ $30 15m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 54¢ $0 16m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 47¢ $35 17m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 80¢ $50 39m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $30 54m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $30 54m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $30 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL SuperBad 99¢ $36 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY SuperBad 82¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 16¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South SELL Yangon Galacticos 6¢ $8 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 70¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $73 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed SELL K27 100¢ $73 19h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $55 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 65¢ $55 19h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $34 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $35 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $57 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY K27 68¢ $50 20h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 63¢ $51 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $66 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 49¢ $68 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $101 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.08 · official $114.66 · 31 history records