Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7ca2…03cf sports 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,924 (-5%) realized −$1,895 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%129W / 193L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$617est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,632
7 days−$3,063
14 days−$1,435
30 days−$2,804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,912
crypto 5% −$111
world 5% −$110
other 3% −$366
finance 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -35.6% -41.7% 28% 27% -32.7%
≤30d 292 -12.0% -20.3% 37% 34% -17.3%
≤90d 322 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 37% -16.1%
all 322 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 37% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 37% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 35% -24.2%
15% -32.8% 32% -31.5%
20% -39.4% 29% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$56 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$1,895
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses129 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$617
Open positions10
Markets (closed)322 / 336
History coverage34d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $74 $96 +$22 (+29%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 76¢ $44 $53 +$9 (+20%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 56¢ 56¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 72¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Chicago Sky 49¢ 58¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 68¢ 80¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 32¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes 48¢ 8¢ $24 $4 −$20 (-83%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 8¢ $26 $4 −$23 (-86%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 +$11 +27%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$40 +71%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $103 −$26 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $70 −$32 -46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $68 +$57 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $68 −$3 -4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $82 −$81 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $438 −$31 -7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$95 +252%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $132 −$131 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $120 −$7 -6%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 −$20 -11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $886 −$311 -35%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 16 $304 −$264 -87%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $447 −$319 -71%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 16 $217 −$217 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $1,277 −$516 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$25 -82%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 16 $1,246 −$597 -48%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $1,479 −$769 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 16 $144 −$134 -94%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $73 +$267 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $49 +$51 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $79 −$39 -49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $52 +$98 +186%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $14 −$13 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $129 −$128 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$94 -62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 57¢ $21 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $44 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $36 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY Chicago Sky 49¢ $15 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 57¢ $2 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $40 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 29¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 44¢ $15 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 35¢ $12 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 44¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 29¢ $7 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 28¢ $12 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 35¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 47¢ $10 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 23¢ $24 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $33 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $44 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 18¢ $16 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 18¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 48¢ $5 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 48¢ $13 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.22 · official $285.22 (match) · 1404 history records