Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ca4…c679 crypto 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$412 (-43%) realized −$412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$96
sports 33% −$247
crypto 30% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.8% -31.9% 33% 33% -42.3%
≤30d 4 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 25% -67.8%
≤90d 15 -58.4% -62.4% 7% 7% -74.2%
all 32 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 19% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 19% -48.7%
10% -39.8% 16% -53.6%
15% -45.6% 6% -58.1%
20% -50.9% 6% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage275d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 May 16 $27 −$17 -64%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 13 $58 −$10 -17%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 −$3 -9%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $195 −$195 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 27 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $96 −$56 -58%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $20 +$71 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 21 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 21 $32 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 21 $5 +$4 +87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 15? Nov 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $14 −$6 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $27 −$20 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $40 −$4 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15? Nov 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $80 −$26 -33%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Nov 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $52 +$16 +30%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Nov 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 14 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $6 44h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 77¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 18d
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $10 31d
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 31d
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 31d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $28 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $21 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 35¢ $21 35d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $37 35d
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 45d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 45d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 45d
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 45d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 50¢ $2 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 49d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 53d
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 53d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd SELL TheMongolz 5¢ $5 82d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $25 82d
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 201d
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 201d
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-11-25? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 203d
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-11-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 204d
Galatasaray SK vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $195 204d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records