Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7ca5…84bc sports 1310 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,228 (+7%) realized +$6,233 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1283W / 35L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$996
other 31% +$428
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -5.5% -14.5% 91% 3% -8.6%
≤30d 759 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 2% -8.2%
≤90d 1318 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -8.1%
all 1318 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 2% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 2% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -16.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.08 per $1 lost it wins $13.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$6,233
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1283 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1318 / 1310
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: Draw at halftime? Yes 94¢ 49¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$2 -44%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6 +$1 +14%
Stroemsgodset IF leading at halftime? Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Norrie vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
Bertola vs. Wu: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ivanov vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ugo Humbert vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bailly vs. Poullain: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Gyula: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Stefan Seifert Jun 16 $147 +$2 +2%
Hijikata vs. Tabilo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $113 +$1 +1%
Fuente vs. Santos: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Rio Noguchi vs. Clement Tabur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $78 +$1 +2%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Janvier vs. Demanet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Tauson vs. Parry: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Mrva vs. Santillan: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Brooksby vs. Damm: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Cerundolo Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Balus vs Toma Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Fery vs. Samuel: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Damas vs. Baena: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Fery vs. Samuel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Wiedenmann vs. Seggerman: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Wiedenmann vs. Seggerman: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 49m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $65 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $64 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $6 1h
Stroemsgodset IF leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 3d
Norrie vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3 3d
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka SELL Lehecka 100¢ $55 3d
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka BUY Lehecka 99¢ $54 3d
Bertola vs. Wu: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 3d
Bertola vs. Wu: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 3d
Ivanov vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 3d
Ivanov vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 3d
Ugo Humbert vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $5 3d
Bailly vs. Poullain: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 3d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 100¢ $51 3d
Ugo Humbert vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $5 3d
Bailly vs. Poullain: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 3d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.69 · official $5.69 (match) · 3500 history records