Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7ca9…1ee0 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+20%) realized +$5 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$25
sports 18% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.5% -0.0% 33% 33% +1.0%
≤30d 6 +10.5% -0.0% 33% 33% +1.0%
≤90d 6 +10.5% -0.0% 33% 33% +1.0%
all 6 +10.5% -0.0% 33% 33% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 33% +1.0%
10% -9.6% 33% -8.6%
15% -18.3% 33% -17.5%
20% -26.4% 33% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$18 +226%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.01 · official $43.01 (match) · 11 history records