Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cac…4519
sports · 26 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$26 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 6 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $88 +$9 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $90 +$7 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$15
other 42% +$19
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $89 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 91¢ $80 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $3 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $4 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 35¢ $5 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $5 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 44h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $90 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 47% +2.3%
≤30d 19 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 47% +2.3%
≤90d 19 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 47% +2.3%
all 19 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 47% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 47% +2.3%
10% -13.1% 42% -7.5%
15% -21.5% 42% -16.4%
20% -29.2% 37% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.17 · official $16.17 (match) · 46 history records