Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cb1…984e sports 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,565 (-2%) realized −$2,565 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%220W / 303L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 182d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$6,986
crypto 33% −$7,092
other 2% −$403
finance 0% −$16
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -51.4% -56.0% 17% 17% -69.4%
≤30d 153 -45.4% -50.6% 20% 20% -64.2%
≤90d 158 -45.7% -50.9% 20% 19% -64.2%
all 523 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 39% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 39% -29.2%
10% -34.8% 34% -35.9%
15% -41.1% 28% -42.1%
20% -46.9% 19% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$186 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses220 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)523 / 414
History coverage182d ⚠
Avg bet$262
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 523 Trades
no open positions (279 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5 Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 22 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Jun 22 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 22 $226 −$226 -100%
Spread: AFC Ajax (-0.5) Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 22 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $339 −$339 -100%
Wizards vs. Bulls Jun 22 $23 +$7 +30%
LoL: Oh My God vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116,000 on October 24? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Hawks Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$50 -2496%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Jun 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Pistons vs. Mavericks Jun 22 $71 −$65 -92%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Jun 22 $233 −$233 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Jun 22 $633 −$633 -100%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Real Betis vs. Girona: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $167 −$167 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5) Jun 22 $43 −$35 -82%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 22 $27 +$5 +18%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Muller Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $192 −$192 -100%
Hawks vs. Clippers Jun 22 $20 −$15 -74%
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Jun 22 $280 −$279 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Pacers vs. Warriors Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 22 $161 −$161 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 22 $246 −$246 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $33 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $25 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $118 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $106 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,371 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $106 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $57 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $29 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $64 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $21 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $64 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $64 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $20 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $280 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records