Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7C 0x7cb2…df19 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$68 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$420per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,924now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-31.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-24.6%	-31.8%	67%	33%	-51.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.8%	33%	-51.4%
10%	-38.3%	33%	-56.0%
15%	-44.3%	0%	-60.3%
20%	-49.8%	0%	-64.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$49 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage

Net worth$1,924

Realized−$68

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage115d

Avg bet$420

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	45¢	46¢	$1,400	$1,447	+$47 (+3%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5	Under	54¢	52¢	$500	$477	−$23 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan	Mar 06	$49	−$49	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4?	Mar 05	$17	+$4	+25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?	Mar 05	$30	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	45¢	$423	1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	54¢	$527	1h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	45¢	$1,056	1h
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan	BUY Chinese Taipei	11¢	$49	113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4?	BUY Yes	80¢	$17	115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?	BUY Yes	99¢	$30	115d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,923.52 · official $1,923.52 (match) · 8 history records