Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cb2…2166 world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-1%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$188
world 25% +$12
other 19% −$350
politics 18% +$2
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 1% -9.4%
all 100 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -10.9%
10% -18.4% 3% -19.4%
15% -26.3% 2% -27.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage189d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $116 −$1 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $77 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $79 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $79 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $92 −$3 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $77 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $44 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $62 +$15 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $50 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 −$4 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $38 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $38 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $38 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $44 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $40 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $35 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $0.00 · 424 history records