Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7cb2…53d3
other · 44 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$25 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage248d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $92 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $49 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $88 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $8 +$10 +127%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$3
other 31% +$11
sports 7% +$12
politics 5% −$1
culture 5% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $31 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $15 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $27 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $18 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $17 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 21h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $20 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $11 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $9 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 13% -6.8%
all 43 +4.7% -5.3% 42% 7% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 7% -7.1%
10% -14.3% 5% -16.0%
15% -22.6% 5% -24.1%
20% -30.2% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $3.20 (match) · 211 history records