Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7cb6…96d1 crypto 794 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,548 (+4%) realized +$3,620 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%495W / 296L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days−$375
14 days−$1,117
30 days−$1,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$4,051
crypto 35% −$929
finance 2% −$84
world 1% −$93
other 1% −$50
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 55% -11.6%
≤30d 480 -6.7% -15.6% 58% 54% -11.7%
≤90d 725 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 56% -10.9%
all 791 -1.9% -11.3% 63% 58% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 58% -6.2%
10% -19.8% 46% -15.2%
15% -27.5% 33% -23.3%
20% -34.6% 22% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$64 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$3,620
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses495 / 296
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions3
Markets (closed)791 / 794
History coverage144d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $124 $56 −$68 (-55%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$74 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$39 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$87 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$66 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$67 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $123 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 +$53 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$36 +86%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $100 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$42 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $301 +$51 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$58 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $285 +$108 +38%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$22 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $178 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $194 +$91 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $116 −$112 -97%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$99 -97%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$35 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $184 +$32 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $184 +$79 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$65 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$46 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 7h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 84¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 7h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $353 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.63 · official $153.63 (match) · 1791 history records