Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7C 0x7cba…7a6b crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%47W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$13
crypto 10% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$18
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$5
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 64 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses47 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage576d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $6,060 −$6 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 07 $18 $0 -0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 21 $13 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 25 $23 −$5 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $57 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $2 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $59 183d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $8 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 243d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $44 243d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 273d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 99¢ $24 335d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $35 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.94 · official $65.94 (match) · 134 history records