Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cbc…2b18 sports 319 markets active 6d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$175 (+0%) realized +$251 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%134W / 184L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$76
14 days−$605
30 days−$987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2,153
other 42% −$2,098
politics 1% −$66
world 1% +$32
weather 1% −$52
crypto 1% −$23
tech 0% −$54
finance 0% −$27
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -12.8% -21.1% 65% 35% -15.0%
≤90d 318 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 25% -9.4%
all 318 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 25% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 25% -9.4%
10% -23.3% 18% -18.1%
15% -30.7% 14% -26.0%
20% -37.5% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$32 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses134 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 319
History coverage75d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $80 $4 −$76 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 −$76 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $681 −$675 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,359 −$684 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,220 +$145 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $987 +$233 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $792 +$194 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $744 +$48 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $525 +$210 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,042 −$518 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $992 +$61 +6%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,100 −$75 -7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,005 +$51 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $952 +$126 +13%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $901 +$45 +5%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $813 +$93 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1,001 −$194 -19%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 30 $101 −$98 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $980 +$128 +13%
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $1,972 −$12 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $886 +$116 +13%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 26 $841 +$44 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $801 +$41 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic May 25 $103 −$94 -92%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 25 $871 +$19 +2%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,802 +$71 +4%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $198 +$56 +28%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2,208 −$542 -25%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $201 +$21 +11%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $2,005 +$190 +10%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $1,709 +$337 +20%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $166 +$40 +24%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 23 $202 −$139 -69%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $1,732 +$50 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $1,652 +$67 +4%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $1,600 +$14 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $1,600 +$13 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $1,601 +$18 +1%
Will Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? May 17 $881 +$742 +84%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $869 +$13 +2%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $851 +$16 +2%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Fiona Ferro vs Elina May 17 $801 +$33 +4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $734 +$86 +12%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$4 +23%
Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? May 15 $419 +$310 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $78 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $681 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $675 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,359 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,365 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,220 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,219 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $987 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $986 13d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $792 13d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $792 13d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $744 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $735 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $525 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $524 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,042 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,053 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $992 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $83 19d
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 20d
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 20d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,025 20d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,100 20d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,056 22d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 22d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $952 23d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran SELL Alexander Donski 100¢ $947 24d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran BUY Alexander Donski 95¢ $901 24d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton SELL Hynek Barton 100¢ $905 27d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 89¢ $813 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.75 · official $3.75 (match) · 1040 history records