Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cbc…d177 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$234 (-7%) realized −$188 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$58
sports 15% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.0% -31.2% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 5 -11.8% -20.2% 20% 20% -20.0%
≤90d 5 -11.8% -20.2% 20% 20% -20.0%
all 5 -11.8% -20.2% 20% 20% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 20% -20.0%
10% -27.9% 20% -27.6%
15% -34.8% 0% -34.6%
20% -41.2% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage33d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $673 $598 −$75 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $287 $316 +$29 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 −$7 -32%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $469 −$74 -16%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $104 −$32 -31%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $104 +$28 +27%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $104 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $99 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $395 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $403 44h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $270 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $592 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 21¢ $14 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 29¢ $21 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 46¢ $395 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $233 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $236 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $467 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $203 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $72 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $132 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $96 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $166 32d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 32d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 32d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $437 32d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $519 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.82 · official $913.82 (match) · 56 history records