Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7cbd…1288 other 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,627 (+10%) realized +$1,142 · open +$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%114W / 175L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$852
14 days+$382
30 days+$877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1,184
other 30% −$386
politics 24% +$342
culture 5% −$86
sports 3% +$196
tech 2% +$551
crypto 1% −$2
economics 1% −$99
finance 1% −$89
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -59.2% -63.1% 24% 24% -56.5%
≤30d 30 +27.1% +15.0% 47% 47% +19.2%
≤90d 99 +18.5% +7.3% 54% 54% +9.1%
all 289 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 39% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 39% -2.0%
10% -17.5% 33% -11.4%
15% -25.4% 28% -19.9%
20% -32.8% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$35 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$3,779
Realized+$1,142
Unrealized+$485
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses114 / 175
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions30
Markets (closed)289 / 319
History coverage195d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 23¢ 98¢ $102 $436 +$334 (+327%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 92¢ $232 $294 +$62 (+27%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $126 $247 +$122 (+97%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 62¢ 96¢ $125 $195 +$69 (+55%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 55¢ 100¢ $98 $176 +$79 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 74¢ $141 $168 +$26 (+19%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 92¢ $131 $166 +$35 (+27%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $137 $145 +$8 (+6%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 60¢ 96¢ $88 $139 +$52 (+59%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 73¢ 72¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 46¢ 62¢ $94 $128 +$34 (+36%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $123 $126 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $95 $119 +$24 (+26%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 97¢ $98 $116 +$18 (+18%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 78¢ 100¢ $90 $115 +$25 (+28%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $96 $110 +$14 (+14%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 89¢ 97¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 77¢ 92¢ $91 $109 +$18 (+19%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 78¢ 83¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $87 $95 +$8 (+9%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $95 $80 −$15 (-16%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $123 $74 −$49 (-40%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 85¢ 93¢ $65 $72 +$6 (+9%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $99 $63 −$36 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $87 +$15 +18%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $138 +$85 +61%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $94 +$49 +52%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $122 +$198 +163%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 14 $98 +$32 +32%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $89 +$271 +305%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $90 +$910 +1011%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $91 +$21 +24%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $129 +$97 +75%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 03 $96 −$96 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $34 +$10 +28%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 03 $99 +$21 +21%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $107 +$23 +22%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co Jun 01 $90 +$471 +525%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 30 $100 +$75 +75%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 20 $98 −$98 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 17 $315 −$10 -3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $89 +$14 +16%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 15 $117 +$88 +75%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 14 $192 −$17 -9%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? May 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $90 +$60 +67%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $89 +$76 +85%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $38 +$142 +376%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 11 $88 +$26 +30%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 11 $90 +$153 +170%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 05 $88 +$23 +27%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? May 05 $88 +$47 +54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 03 $15 +$11 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $98 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $82 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $130 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $120 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $141 4d
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? BUY No 85¢ $65 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $116 5d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $75 6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $125 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $75 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $85 6d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 6d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $94 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $33 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $137 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,779.03 · official $3,779.28 (match) · 1150 history records