Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7cc1…fdc6 sports 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48,963 (-24%) realized −$49,330 · open +$367
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%155W / 160L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$652per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 170d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$11,512
crypto 25% −$12,407
other 13% +$5,196
world 4% −$1,563
finance 4% +$445
politics 1% −$1,517
tech 1% +$448
economics 0% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 40% -19.2%
≤30d 74 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -12.0%
≤90d 94 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 48% -21.1%
all 315 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 46% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 46% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 43% -26.6%
15% -27.5% 40% -33.7%
20% -34.6% 37% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$871) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$599 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$3,577
Realized−$49,330
Unrealized+$367
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses155 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions4
Markets (closed)315 / 319
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$652
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $876 $1,360 +$484 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1,412 $1,216 −$195 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 60¢ 100¢ $597 $1,000 +$402 (+67%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner XLG Gaming 11¢ $325 $1 −$323 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $400 +$400 +100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $210 −$208 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $328 +$172 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $481 +$549 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $612 +$588 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $613 −$610 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $1,880 −$1,520 -81%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $430 −$430 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $540 +$460 +85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $540 +$460 +85%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $379 −$378 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $575 +$659 +115%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $371 −$366 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $299 +$201 +67%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$56 -52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $274 −$270 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $429 −$425 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $386 −$386 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $334 −$328 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $125 −$125 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $232 −$232 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $264 −$264 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $269 −$269 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $271 −$271 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $190 −$190 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin Jun 11 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 11 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $497 +$503 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $315 +$185 +59%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $180 +$320 +178%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $250 +$250 +100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $172 +$327 +190%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $265 +$235 +89%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $301 +$489 +162%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $279 +$221 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $259 +$241 +93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $245 +$255 +104%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $284 +$216 +76%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $215 +$285 +133%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $331 +$319 +96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $330 +$170 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 49¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 58¢ $174 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 65¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 65¢ $260 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $6 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $2 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $55 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $0 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $78 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $27 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $72 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $1 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $30 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $7 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $30 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 48¢ $40 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 48¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 48¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $32 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $18 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $111 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $373 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,577.12 · official $3,577.12 (match) · 3500 history records