Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cc2…bf53 sports 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$726 (-4%) realized −$726 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days−$469
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$458
other 16% −$323
crypto 15% −$179
weather 2% −$31
world 0% −$16
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 39% -15.8%
≤30d 89 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 39% -10.6%
≤90d 290 -15.6% -23.7% 41% 37% -14.9%
all 311 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 37% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 37% -15.1%
10% -31.8% 31% -23.2%
15% -38.4% 27% -30.6%
20% -44.4% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$726
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 184
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)311 / 311
History coverage97d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 311 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $154 +$22 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $110 +$37 +34%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $304 −$44 -14%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$84 +41%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $98 +$47 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $231 +$79 +34%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $51 −$8 -15%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 +$60 +123%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$115 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $99 +$80 +80%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $113 +$86 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $75 +$68 +91%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $219 −$144 -66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $180 +$33 +18%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$9 -55%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $149 −$146 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $226 −$222 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 −$159 -42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $175 −$91 -52%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $91 +$84 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $225 −$220 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $404 −$400 -99%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $244 −$8 -3%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $152 −$5 -3%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $152 −$5 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$81 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $841 +$70 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $354 +$179 +51%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $153 +$196 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $90 +$156 +172%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $154 −$24 -16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $304 −$10 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $232 +$128 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$105 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$58 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $188 +$86 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $176 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $148 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $110 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 87¢ $154 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 51¢ $260 2h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $285 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $202 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $310 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $231 6h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes $10 7h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 51¢ $27 19h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco BUY Daniel Rincon 58¢ $51 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $109 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $179 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $99 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $49 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $199 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $113 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $144 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $75 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $75 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records