Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cc6…9c5c sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,223 (-19%) realized −$1,214 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,239
7 days−$1,199
14 days−$1,209
30 days−$1,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,196
other 29% −$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.7% -3.4% 46% 29% -40.6%
≤30d 37 +2.6% -7.2% 46% 27% -39.3%
≤90d 37 +2.6% -7.2% 46% 27% -39.3%
all 37 +2.6% -7.2% 46% 27% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 27% -39.3%
10% -16.1% 24% -45.1%
15% -24.2% 22% -50.4%
20% -31.6% 22% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$111 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2,810
Realized−$1,214
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage13d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,819 $1,800 −$19 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1,000 $1,010 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 27 $38 −$1 -1%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,003 +$756 +75%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2,030 −$2,011 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $17 −$1 -6%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $19 $0 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $34 +$18 +52%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $18 $0 +2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $16 −$2 -10%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $36 +$34 +96%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $16 +$19 +112%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$1 -6%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $21 +$14 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $31 −$3 -10%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $17 +$4 +25%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17 −$3 -16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 −$3 -17%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 23 $11 −$1 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $18 +$18 +100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$18 +108%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$1 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$2 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$17 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,000 1m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $37 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $9 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $10 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $12 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $4 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $812 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $961 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,008 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $256 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $19 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $308 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $287 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $103 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $26 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 22h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $849 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,810.16 · official $2,810.16 (match) · 119 history records