Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cc7…0755 sports 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$603 (-33%) realized −$604 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%11W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$604
14 days−$652
30 days−$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$491
sports 10% −$143
other 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -78.0% -80.1% 6% 6% -41.2%
≤30d 183 -78.5% -80.5% 6% 5% -42.5%
≤90d 183 -78.5% -80.5% 6% 5% -42.5%
all 183 -78.5% -80.5% 6% 5% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.5% 5% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -82.4% 4% -48.0%
15% -84.1% 3% -53.0%
20% -85.6% 2% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses11 / 172
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 71¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$49 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $91 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $132 −$112 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $345 −$192 -56%
Exact Score: Cambodia 0 - 0 Hong Kong SAR? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $3.35 (match) · 627 history records