Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7ccb…783c crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-2%) realized −$118 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$101
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$20
politics 19% −$2
tech 12% −$1
economics 12% $0
world 12% −$1
culture 3% $0
sports 3% −$104
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.3% -29.7% 11% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 11 -15.2% -23.3% 18% 9% -11.3%
≤90d 14 -19.0% -26.8% 29% 7% -11.9%
all 39 -6.8% -15.7% 38% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 3% -11.3%
10% -23.8% 3% -19.8%
15% -31.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage398d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 55¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $781 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $772 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$71 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? Jun 10 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) May 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 9-15? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on January 20? Jan 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Jan 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Dec 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on December 4? Dec 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 4? Dec 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 12? Nov 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 May 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 20 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $733 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $738 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $195 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $556 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $585 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $781 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $717 4d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 4d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $730 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $785 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $73 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $26 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 95¢ $32 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $32 11d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 74¢ $23 38d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) BUY Passion UA 34¢ $33 42d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 74d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $13 90d
Will Solana dip to $30 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $15 103d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 139d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 139d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.04 · official $19.01 (match) · 104 history records