trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -25.1% | -32.3% | 33% | 33% | -1.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -19.5% | -27.2% | 20% | 10% | -6.3% |
| all | 29 | -19.7% | -27.4% | 28% | 21% | -3.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.4% | 21% | -3.5% |
| 10% | -34.3% | 21% | -12.7% |
| 15% | -40.7% | 7% | -21.2% |
| 20% | -46.5% | 7% | -28.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $97 | $95 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $1,214 | −$109 | -9% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 04 | $890 | +$299 | +34% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 29 | $296 | −$84 | -28% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $101 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$3 | -26% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$2 | -20% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$2 | -18% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Mar 17 | $100 | −$97 | -97% |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Feb 24 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 01 | $88 | −$2 | -2% |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | Feb 01 | $500 | −$378 | -76% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $300 | +$87 | +29% |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | Jan 29 | $690 | +$236 | +34% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Jan 15 | $800 | −$65 | -8% |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31? | Jan 02 | $105 | −$34 | -32% |
| Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? | Oct 13 | $100 | +$152 | +152% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 09 | $607 | −$170 | -28% |
| Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | May 08 | $249 | −$188 | -76% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 25 | $389 | −$182 | -47% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 20 | $124 | −$14 | -11% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $3,136 | +$1,805 | +58% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? | Oct 23 | $184 | −$48 | -26% |
| Will Biden visit Israel by end of week? | Oct 23 | $17 | −$15 | -91% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? | Oct 23 | $30 | +$7 | +23% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? | Oct 23 | $63 | +$4 | +7% |
| Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? | Oct 22 | $1 | −$1 | -43% |