Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7ccf…12a2 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 984d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$759 (+7%) realized +$762 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$1,980
sports 34% −$254
other 16% −$585
tech 5% −$378
world 4% −$55
finance 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -25.1% -32.3% 33% 33% -1.8%
≤90d 10 -19.5% -27.2% 20% 10% -6.3%
all 29 -19.7% -27.4% 28% 21% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 21% -3.5%
10% -34.3% 21% -12.7%
15% -40.7% 7% -21.2%
20% -46.5% 7% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$325 vs −$91 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

984d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$762
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage984d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $97 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,214 −$109 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $890 +$299 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $296 −$84 -28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $101 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 02 $10 −$3 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 02 $10 −$2 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 02 $10 −$2 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 02 $10 −$2 -18%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $500 −$500 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 01 $88 −$2 -2%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 01 $500 −$378 -76%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $300 +$87 +29%
Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? Jan 29 $690 +$236 +34%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 15 $800 −$65 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31? Jan 02 $105 −$34 -32%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Oct 13 $100 +$152 +152%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $607 −$170 -28%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $249 −$188 -76%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $389 −$182 -47%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $124 −$14 -11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,136 +$1,805 +58%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? Oct 23 $184 −$48 -26%
Will Biden visit Israel by end of week? Oct 23 $17 −$15 -91%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? Oct 23 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Sunday? Oct 23 $63 +$4 +7%
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Oct 31? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $99 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 76¢ $838 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 91¢ $1,014 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 50¢ $266 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 65¢ $50 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $50 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $100 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $590 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $149 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $160 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $101 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $410 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 43¢ $212 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $296 32d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $107 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $189 32d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $101 33d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $378 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL Yes $7 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL Yes $8 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL Yes $8 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY Yes $10 86d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes $10 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.53 · official $94.53 (match) · 98 history records