Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cd2…3079 crypto 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$43,620 (+338%) realized +$43,660 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +250% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +169% what you keep after slip
Net edge+169%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%296W / 368L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3303.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+216.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 664 +249.7% +216.4% 45% 38% +64.6%
≤30d 664 +249.7% +216.4% 45% 38% +64.6%
≤90d 664 +249.7% +216.4% 45% 38% +64.6%
all 664 +249.7% +216.4% 45% 38% +64.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3303.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +216.4% 38% +64.6%
10% ← realistic here +186.1% 35% +48.8%
15% +158.5% 33% +34.4%
20% +133.1% 32% +21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +250% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +543% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$38 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$43,660
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses296 / 368
Open positions3
Markets (closed)664 / 181
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3303.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 664 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Down 35¢ 56¢ $47 $74 +$27 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Up 62¢ 44¢ $63 $45 −$18 (-28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Down 62¢ 72¢ $36 $42 +$6 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Up 56¢ 28¢ $36 $18 −$17 (-49%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 96¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 33¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 29 $155 −$224 -145%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $64 +$9 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$145 -797%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$59 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $76 −$51 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$41 -1342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$178 +1132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $18 +$55 +298%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$145 -505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $63 +$37 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $80 −$101 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$137 +260%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$282 +2338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$109 +374%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$168 +11112%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$53 +203%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $63 +$66 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$31 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$143 +1043%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$28 +2576%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$355 +1249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $97 −$295 -305%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET Jun 29 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$14 -202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $18 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.43 · official $189.44 · 3500 history records