Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cd4…8ed6 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13,339 (-21%) realized −$13,492 · open +$153
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,712per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$9,973
other 29% −$3,151
crypto 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -93.9% -94.5% 0% 0% -99.9%
all 16 -38.9% -44.7% 38% 38% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.7% 38% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.0% 38% -35.7%
15% -54.8% 19% -42.0%
20% -59.3% 12% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,300 vs −$2,713 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,149
Realized−$13,492
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage232d
Avg bet$3,712
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $996 $1,149 +$153 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $5,646 −$5,646 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $7,014 −$7,014 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 04 $76 −$57 -76%
Pistons vs. Celtics Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $1,788 −$1,712 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $1,001 +$787 +79%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $1,589 −$1,576 -99%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 25 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 25 $3,068 +$763 +25%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 13 $9,001 −$8,986 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Nov 12 $9,676 +$3,225 +33%
Warriors vs. Thunder Nov 12 $7,069 +$2,605 +37%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 11 $312 −$57 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 11 $958 −$901 -94%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 11 $4,894 +$1,545 +32%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $8,827 +$4,876 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,000 1h
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3,569 69d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1,337 69d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $740 69d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Spurs 54¢ $7,014 84d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes $18 84d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,149.26 · official $1,147.52 (match) · 140 history records