Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cd8…7b1d sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$387 (+8%) realized +$456 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 50L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$238
14 days+$198
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$227
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 40% 40% +135.7%
≤30d 33 +6.0% -4.1% 24% 24% -12.2%
≤90d 67 -8.8% -17.5% 25% 25% -2.8%
all 67 -8.8% -17.5% 25% 25% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 25% -2.8%
10% -25.4% 21% -12.1%
15% -32.6% 21% -20.6%
20% -39.2% 16% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$36 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 50
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage63d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 32¢ 18¢ $144 $84 −$60 (-42%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $31 +$70 +227%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $96 +$190 +198%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $134 −$131 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$198 +484%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $31 +$74 +243%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$164 +800%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$80 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $38 +$163 +434%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $696 −$305 -44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner May 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $303 +$151 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $507 +$73 +14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $21 −$13 -61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $102 +$336 +328%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 15 $87 −$19 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs May 15 $68 −$28 -41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs May 15 $132 −$44 -34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $20 14m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $20 15m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $9 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 55¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 16¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $286 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $45 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $51 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $31 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 4¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 5¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $31 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 10¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $239 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 2¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $41 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 14¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 37¢ $41 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 35¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $105 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.94 · official $83.94 (match) · 164 history records