Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cd9…9d8b sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$5,817 (-14%) realized −$5,831 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +328% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +197% what you keep after slip
Net edge+197%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,076per market
Trades / day153.9pace
Fees−$417est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+287.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +327.9% +287.2% 83% 50% -28.1%
≤30d 6 +327.9% +287.2% 83% 50% -28.1%
≤90d 6 +327.9% +287.2% 83% 50% -28.1%
all 6 +327.9% +287.2% 83% 50% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +287.2% 50% -28.1%
10% +250.1% 50% -35.0%
15% ← realistic here +216.3% 17% -41.3%
20% +185.3% 17% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +328% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,101 vs −$10,775 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,304
Realized−$5,831
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$417
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6,076
Trades / day153.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $2,289 $2,303 +$14 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6,852 +$560 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6,163 +$1,703 +28%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6,646 +$1,627 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5,117 +$1,483 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4,686 +$132 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10,775 −$10,775 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $308 0m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 0m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 0m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $19 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 2m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 3m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 3m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 6m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $8 9m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $188 15m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $19 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $17 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $28 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $17 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $8 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 18m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $72 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,303.67 · official $2,303.42 (match) · 174 history records