Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7ce6…3f06 crypto 1746 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,233 (-3%) realized −$1,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%1211W / 542L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$232
7 days−$232
14 days−$286
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,178
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -23.3% -30.6% 60% 40% -64.6%
≤30d 63 -15.9% -23.9% 59% 44% -35.1%
≤90d 763 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 42% -12.7%
all 1753 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 48% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 9% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1211 / 542
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1753 / 1746
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1753 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 27 $98 −$100 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$10 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records