Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7ce8…7772 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 508d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23,377 (+6%) realized +$21,003 · open +$2,374
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate97%37W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$9,288per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$32,990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$10,854
world 29% +$7,100
other 24% +$2,517
economics 4% +$564
culture 3% +$843
crypto 3% +$1,495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +5.1% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 7 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 29% -3.0%
all 38 +7.5% -2.7% 97% 32% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 32% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -13.5%
15% -20.5% 0% -21.9%
20% -28.3% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$12,680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$574 vs −$236 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×89.98 per $1 lost it wins $89.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$32,990
Realized+$21,003
Unrealized+$2,374
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses37 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage508d
Avg bet$9,288
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $11,898 $11,930 +$32 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $10,032 $11,360 +$1,328 (+13%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,005 $4,992 −$13 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $3,442 $4,468 +$1,026 (+30%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $239 $240 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,046 +$154 +5%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 21 $3,011 +$89 +3%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $2,892 +$108 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $12,680 +$1,504 +12%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $11,853 +$36 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $5,248 +$348 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $12,867 +$1,483 +12%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 22 $17,800 +$458 +3%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 02 $10,038 +$462 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $6,713 +$287 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jan 10 $3,008 +$192 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 10 $3,486 +$184 +5%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 10 $4,151 +$446 +11%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jan 10 $18,809 +$879 +5%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 10 $6,440 +$249 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 16 $7,886 +$1,501 +19%
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Nov 16 $16,846 +$829 +5%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 05 $4,012 −$236 -6%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 27 $7,005 +$125 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $10,157 +$843 +8%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 08 $5,095 +$905 +18%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $15,900 +$820 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $9,617 +$277 +3%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 10 $8,144 +$1,472 +18%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $41,296 +$791 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jul 02 $37,366 +$825 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jul 01 $2,732 +$373 +14%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 17 $18,220 +$765 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 30 $5,801 +$199 +3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 30 $7,351 +$272 +4%
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? May 02 $1,929 +$358 +19%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 02 $5,558 +$990 +18%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $7,413 +$374 +5%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 30 $7,440 +$560 +8%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 30 $10,005 +$1,495 +15%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April? Apr 01 $242 +$36 +15%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 01 $840 +$160 +19%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 01 $15,756 +$386 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $216 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,005 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 76¢ $3,069 25d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,046 30d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 79¢ $405 31d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,011 39d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 80¢ $11,992 40d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11,853 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $10,032 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $2,000 90d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $2,087 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $84 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $107 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $161 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $97 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $190 91d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $71 91d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 89¢ $1,780 91d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 89¢ $8,900 91d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 100¢ $750 97d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 99¢ $7,376 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $7,616 102d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $8 111d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $5,240 111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 83¢ $5,252 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,990.49 · official $32,990.49 (match) · 204 history records