Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cea…371b sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$639 (-1%) realized −$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%124W / 85L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$367est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,805
7 days−$2,612
14 days−$1,700
30 days−$1,702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$715
other 6% −$1,377
politics 2% −$1,063
crypto 1% −$76
tech 0% −$18
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -47.7% -52.6% 43% 21% -18.9%
≤30d 127 -16.8% -24.7% 61% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 201 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 47% -11.4%
all 209 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 46% -12.6%
10% -22.7% 32% -20.9%
15% -30.2% 19% -28.6%
20% -37.0% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$127 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses124 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$367
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage168d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,297 +$123 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $486 +$38 +8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $582 +$53 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Francavilla: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Gustavo Heide Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 21 $13 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -60%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $183 −$176 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $226 −$226 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 21 $105 +$5 +5%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $332 −$332 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $603 −$603 -100%
Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,012 +$422 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $311 −$311 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,009 +$418 +41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,005 +$101 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $504 +$100 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $503 +$57 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $504 +$133 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,411 +$117 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$93 -91%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,304 +$94 +7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,203 +$100 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $795 41m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $625 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $625 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $672 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $524 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $486 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $635 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $582 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,002 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $5 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 85¢ $1,434 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,012 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,427 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $311 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,009 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $1,107 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1,005 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 92¢ $604 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $504 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $560 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $503 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $637 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $504 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,529 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,411 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,110 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,003 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records