Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cea…ebc1 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,381 (-8%) realized −$1,381 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%38W / 61L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$502
14 days+$502
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,708
other 20% −$3,201
politics 1% −$32
crypto 1% −$22
world 1% +$9
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.0% -14.1% 57% 57% +34.9%
≤30d 7 -5.0% -14.1% 57% 57% +34.9%
≤90d 12 -8.0% -16.7% 58% 58% +17.1%
all 99 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 33% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 33% -17.6%
10% -33.7% 28% -25.5%
15% -40.1% 24% -32.7%
20% -45.9% 16% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$92 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses38 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage705d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $475 +$462 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $273 +$139 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $94 +$36 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $126 −$120 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $643 +$328 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $523 +$56 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $199 −$187 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $174 −$25 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $88 +$63 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Space FDV above $60M one day after launch? Feb 18 $37 −$29 -78%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $37 +$1 +2%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? Jan 07 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Jan 07 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Will Trump say "Inflation" during his AI speech on July 23? Jan 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Trump x Elon talk by August 31? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 5? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? Jan 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Falcons vs. Colts Jan 07 $5,162 −$1,758 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jan 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Jan 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $25 +$11 +45%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $40 −$13 -33%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $114 −$61 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 18 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Nov 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 16 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 15 $20 −$3 -15%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $65 −$1 -1%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5 Nov 15 $10 $0 -0%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 15 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $36 +$24 +66%
LoL: DC vs RR Nov 09 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 09 $10 −$4 -41%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Nov 09 $8 $0 -6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming Sep 14 $2,005 +$1,025 +51%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Xtreme Gaming Sep 14 $1,625 +$194 +12%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Sep 13 $780 +$980 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $475 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $126 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $273 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $53 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 26¢ $52 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $507 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $20 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $51 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 91¢ $579 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $12 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $12 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 82¢ $523 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $199 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $26 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 90¢ $224 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $2 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $5 38d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $142 38d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 55¢ $150 40d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $28 40d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $60 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up $9 126d
Space FDV above $60M one day after launch? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records