Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7ceb…b516 sports 715 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,787 (+5%) realized +$4,949 · open −$162
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%379W / 334L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$1,199
14 days+$1,099
30 days+$1,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$4,020
crypto 3% −$261
other 1% +$392
weather 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +255.2% +221.4% 100% 100% +200.4%
≤30d 9 +142.7% +119.6% 78% 78% +124.2%
≤90d 132 +8.8% -1.5% 51% 51% +0.2%
all 713 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 53% -5.5%
10% -15.4% 52% -14.5%
15% -23.6% 50% -22.8%
20% -31.1% 43% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$124 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$4,949
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses379 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions2
Markets (closed)713 / 715
History coverage352d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 19¢ 18¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians 29¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $81 +$39 +48%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $141 +$71 +50%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $82 +$51 +62%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $122 +$129 +105%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $90 +$910 +1011%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana Jun 05 $75 +$60 +79%
Cervia: Jacopo Vasami vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 05 $64 +$82 +129%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 21 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 18 $142 −$140 -99%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Henri Squire May 17 $103 −$101 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 17 $1,266 +$552 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 16 $151 +$54 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $153 +$316 +206%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $153 +$364 +238%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Hamburg Towers vs. Wuerzburg May 12 $141 +$68 +48%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 12 $152 +$83 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 12 $142 +$138 +97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich May 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Wuerzburg vs. Riesen Ludwigsburg May 10 $43 −$42 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agu May 09 $143 −$140 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie May 08 $142 −$140 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $142 −$140 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Victoria Jimenez Kasintsev May 06 $50 +$55 +109%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ May 06 $142 +$84 +60%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 06 $142 +$117 +83%
Jiujiang: Anastasia Zolotareva vs Mei Yamaguchi May 06 $142 +$117 +83%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Nikoloz May 05 $143 −$140 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 04 $165 +$158 +96%
Reading FC vs. Blackpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $62 −$61 -99%
Saint-Malo: Whitney Osuigwe vs Viktorija Golubic Apr 30 $152 −$150 -99%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $151 −$150 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Apr 29 $85 +$127 +150%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giants Apr 29 $150 +$151 +101%
Saint-Malo: Sofia Costoulas vs Leolia Jeanjean Apr 29 $152 −$150 -99%
1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 28 $152 −$150 -98%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $153 −$150 -98%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx Apr 28 $150 −$149 -99%
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fils Apr 28 $150 −$147 -98%
Saint-Malo: Clara Burel vs Viktorija Golubic Apr 28 $150 +$97 +65%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 26 $150 −$149 -99%
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Manitoba Moose Apr 26 $123 −$121 -98%
Riesen Ludwigsburg vs. Rostock Seawolves Apr 26 $140 +$116 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Apr 25 $140 −$138 -98%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 25 $140 −$137 -98%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 25 $140 +$180 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 19¢ $154 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 29¢ $153 2h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 67¢ $81 31h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 66¢ $141 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 12d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $82 14d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $122 15d
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) BUY Coritiba FBC 54¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 55¢ $75 28d
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 54¢ $142 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 50¢ $70 31d
Cervia: Jacopo Vasami vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 43¢ $64 32d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $142 34d
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 47¢ $103 35d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 69¢ $1,266 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi BUY Casper Ruud 73¢ $151 37d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 32¢ $153 39d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $152 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 32¢ $153 41d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 41d
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich BUY Talia Gibson 41¢ $153 41d
Wuerzburg vs. Riesen Ludwigsburg BUY Riesen Ludwigsburg 42¢ $43 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agu BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 36¢ $143 43d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $142 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 61¢ $142 44d
Hamburg Towers vs. Wuerzburg BUY Wuerzburg 67¢ $141 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz BUY Ethan Quinn 47¢ $142 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Nikoloz BUY Rinky Hijikata 39¢ $143 47d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $142 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.42 · official $138.42 (match) · 1414 history records