Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7cee…a328 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$22
politics 27% −$12
sports 6% +$3
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -0.7% -10.1% 4% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage125d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $431 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $289 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $238 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $304 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $545 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $474 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $783 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $44 29h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $249 29d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $276 29d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $276 43d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $213 43d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $213 44d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $278 44d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $278 44d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $233 44d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $233 45d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $295 45d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $295 45d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 45d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 45d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $232 46d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $232 47d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $217 47d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $217 47d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 47d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 47d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 47d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 48d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $273 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 366 history records