Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7cee…b72a sports 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$9,383 (+2%) realized +$8,411 · open +$1,300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%264W / 231L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$758per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1,398est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,026
7 days+$9,096
14 days+$10,397
30 days+$7,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,878
other 24% +$6,638
crypto 0% +$1,302
world 0% −$1,107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +113.1% +92.8% 71% 67% +76.6%
≤30d 61 +34.8% +22.0% 51% 44% +7.6%
≤90d 171 +14.4% +3.5% 53% 45% -11.9%
all 495 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 48% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 48% -7.5%
10% -7.7% 44% -16.3%
15% -16.6% 39% -24.4%
20% -24.8% 34% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$656 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$3,023
Realized+$8,411
Unrealized+$1,300
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses264 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,398
Open positions3
Markets (closed)495 / 498
History coverage377d
Avg bet$758
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 100¢ $1,481 $2,784 +$1,302 (+88%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $142 $138 −$3 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Penguins vs. Red Wings Red Wings 29¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 59¢ 0¢ $1,710 $0 −$1,710 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? No 37¢ 0¢ $1,744 $0 −$1,744 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 86¢ 0¢ $966 $0 −$966 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Fnatic 62¢ 0¢ $2,511 $0 −$2,511 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Eternal Fire 50¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? No 42¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? No 42¢ 0¢ $727 $0 −$727 (-100%)
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Denmark 27¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Finney 43¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Bears vs. 49ers Bears 36¢ 0¢ $502 $0 −$502 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 46¢ 0¢ $856 $0 −$856 (-100%)
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-19? No 59¢ 0¢ $1,472 $0 −$1,472 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Heroic 42¢ 0¢ $2,499 $0 −$2,499 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? No 21¢ 0¢ $884 $0 −$884 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Celtics Celtics 70¢ 0¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 27¢ 0¢ $1,701 $0 −$1,701 (-100%)
Jets vs. Golden Knights Jets 37¢ 0¢ $588 $0 −$588 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 68¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20? No 58¢ 0¢ $3,174 $0 −$3,174 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Rockets 78¢ 0¢ $783 $0 −$783 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 83¢ 0¢ $602 $0 −$602 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $783 +$2,115 +270%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $727 +$1,003 +138%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $262 −$262 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $122 +$226 +186%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$202 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $983 +$1,242 +126%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $459 +$2,021 +440%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 +$120 +152%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $307 +$176 +57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $481 −$458 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $612 +$59 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $119 +$181 +152%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $399 −$399 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$408 +1011%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,176 +$1,024 +47%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $251 −$241 -96%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 11 $261 +$662 +254%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $117 +$231 +197%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $177 +$56 +31%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$81 +146%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $724 +$850 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $856 −$856 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2,712 +$2,088 +77%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $145 +$166 +114%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $145 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $407 +$906 +222%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $147 −$24 -17%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $233 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 29 $920 +$746 +81%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff May 29 $678 +$899 +133%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports (BO5) - ESL Challenger Leagu May 28 $90 $0 +0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $831 −$831 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $736 −$335 -46%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,037 −$2,037 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,153 +$48 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $267 −$191 -72%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 21 $1,071 +$1,029 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $415 −$415 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $132 +$21 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $250 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $22 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $119 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $129 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $4 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $100 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $143 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $597 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $11 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $16 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $103 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $102 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $162 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $22 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $11 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $53 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $4 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $11 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $181 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $3 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $55 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $10 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $27 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,022.80 · official $3,022.80 (match) · 3105 history records