Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cf1…8c29 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$34 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.1%
≤30d 9 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 9 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.1%
all 9 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -11.1%
10% -22.4% 44% -19.6%
15% -29.9% 44% -27.4%
20% -36.8% 44% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$38 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Lys vs Navarro Jun 23 $99 −$97 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Lys vs Navarro Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $41 +$40 +100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $38 +$58 +152%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $48 +$43 +91%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $37 +$41 +112%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 16¢ $37 13h
Set 2 Winner: Lys vs Navarro BUY Lys 37¢ $99 14h
Set 1 Winner: Lys vs Navarro BUY Lys 22¢ $21 15h
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta SELL Tomasz Berkieta 96¢ $81 15h
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 47¢ $41 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $38 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $28 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $37 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 17 history records