Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7cf4…9f41 other 60 markets active 5d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-9%) realized −$40 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$24
world 12% −$3
tech 7% −$1
sports 3% −$8
politics 1% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.8% -54.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
≤30d 6 -49.8% -54.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
≤90d 6 -49.8% -54.6% 33% 33% -47.9%
all 56 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 45% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 45% -17.0%
10% -37.8% 39% -25.0%
15% -43.8% 32% -32.2%
20% -49.3% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage234d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 35¢ 16¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Feb 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? Feb 10 $3 +$4 +117%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Feb 10 $20 +$14 +70%
Will AFC Ajax vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Jan 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 28 $20 +$7 +37%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Jan 03 $1 $0 +16%
Nine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jan 01 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? Nov 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? Nov 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Kazakhstan vs. Belgium end in a draw? Nov 15 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Sweden end in a draw? Nov 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Japan troop visit on October 28? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-01? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-26? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hiroshima" or "Nagasaki" during Japan troop visit on O Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Nov 08 $1 $0 +32%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-01? Nov 08 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? Oct 28 $6 +$7 +117%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $5 +$5 +104%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Oct 26 $20 +$47 +233%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $6 6d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 6d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 126d
Will AFC Ajax vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 139d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 139d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 139d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 139d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 139d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 139d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 139d
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 139d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 139d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 139d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 164d
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 164d
Nine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 164d
Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 165d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? BUY No 86¢ $1 166d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 166d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 166d
Nine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 166d
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 166d
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.54 · official $21.55 (match) · 94 history records