Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cf4…adcf other 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$427 (-17%) realized −$402 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%64W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$193
14 days−$227
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$325
sports 9% +$43
crypto 8% −$122
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -19.9% -27.5% 18% 17% -24.1%
≤30d 371 -20.9% -28.5% 17% 16% -26.8%
≤90d 371 -20.9% -28.5% 17% 16% -26.8%
all 371 -20.9% -28.5% 17% 16% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 16% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 16% -33.8%
15% -41.6% 15% -40.2%
20% -47.3% 15% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$402
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses64 / 307
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)371 / 392
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
South Africa leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $8 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $4 +$2 +53%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $7 +$5 +65%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $71 −$31 -44%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $3 +$16 +509%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $6 $0 -6%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $6 +$4 +63%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $6 −$5 -76%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -57%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 +$18 +873%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $3 +$18 +595%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -49%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -39%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -88%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -91%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +71%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $7 +$2 +27%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 $0 -26%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $15 +$10 +64%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg SELL 71¢ $19 13h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 14h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 14h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 36¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 16h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 15¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.34 · official $159.35 (match) · 720 history records