Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cf8…bf8c sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$165 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$323
7 days+$555
14 days+$254
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$154
other 43% +$7
finance 3% −$56
politics 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +70.6% +54.4% 89% 89% +31.3%
≤30d 22 +20.6% +9.1% 68% 68% -3.5%
≤90d 22 +20.6% +9.1% 68% 68% -3.5%
all 59 +0.1% -9.4% 51% 49% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 49% -10.4%
10% -18.1% 41% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 31% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$61 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage149d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 78¢ $223 $353 +$130 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$65 +64%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $81 +$93 +114%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $92 +$76 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 +$89 +109%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 +$72 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $275 +$55 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $118 +$157 +134%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $248 −$130 -53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $170 +$78 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $402 −$399 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $343 +$59 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $236 +$108 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $143 +$92 +64%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $116 −$76 -66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $297 −$182 -61%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$151 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $369 +$204 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $195 +$174 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $92 +$28 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $64 +$27 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $35 +$11 +31%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $26 +$9 +35%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 18 $44 −$7 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $35 +$10 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Gr Feb 18 $107 −$33 -31%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $21 +$48 +233%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $21 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $59 −$38 -64%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $81 −$42 -52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Feb 16 $20 −$16 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Feb 16 $129 +$21 +16%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 16 $72 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $43 +$24 +56%
Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? Feb 15 $36 +$7 +18%
Valorant: MIBR vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $95 −$20 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $65 −$45 -70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $116 −$10 -9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $41 +$35 +85%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $59 −$59 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $127 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 11h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $81 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $92 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $81 40h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $275 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $275 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $118 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $117 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $248 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $170 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $402 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $343 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $236 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $236 9d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $143 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $116 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $115 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $297 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $153 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 10d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 84¢ $267 10d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $102 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $369 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $195 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.70 · official $352.70 (match) · 129 history records