Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7cfa…1660 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$101 (+3%) realized +$140 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$187
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$171
sports 13% +$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 58% +1.9%
≤30d 20 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 60% -6.4%
≤90d 20 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 60% -6.4%
all 20 +7.0% -3.2% 60% 60% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 60% -6.4%
10% -12.5% 55% -15.3%
15% -20.9% 45% -23.5%
20% -28.7% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$89 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage22d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $400 $380 −$20 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $285 $264 −$21 (-7%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$23 -23%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $111 +$46 +42%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $36 −$23 -63%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $315 +$172 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $302 −$298 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $218 +$104 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $195 +$23 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $143 +$52 +36%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $98 +$45 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $319 −$225 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $321 −$7 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $263 +$64 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$70 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$106 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $406 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 15h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $79 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 18h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 23h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $315 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $302 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $218 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $195 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $195 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $143 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $94 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $319 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $315 10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $321 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $327 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $263 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $195 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 78¢ $93 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.50 · official $695.50 (match) · 63 history records