Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cfc…c568 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1
other 31% +$5
politics 16% +$6
sports 8% +$1
culture 3% $0
finance 2% −$2
crypto 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.5% -1.8% 38% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 26 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 12% -9.5%
≤90d 37 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 8% -9.4%
all 79 -1.9% -11.2% 35% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage347d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $229 +$2 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $193 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $194 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$8 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $213 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $120 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $226 −$4 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $645 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $3 +$1 +50%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $91 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $88 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $488 +$1 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $157 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $158 −$2 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $591 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $215 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $649 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $155 +$4 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $585 +$1 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 11 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $191 +$3 +2%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 12 $218 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 12 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $99 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $99 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $31 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $28 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $93 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $93 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $73 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $90 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $55 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $86 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $100 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $89 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $91 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $85 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records