Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7cfd…a1db other 70 markets active 6d ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$138 (-2%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 44L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$135
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$295
politics 22% +$698
sports 14% −$474
world 8% −$48
crypto 5% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 6 -50.2% -55.0% 17% 17% -16.7%
≤90d 34 -35.7% -41.8% 24% 24% -31.5%
all 70 -11.3% -19.7% 37% 33% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 33% -12.6%
10% -27.4% 29% -21.0%
15% -34.4% 27% -28.6%
20% -40.8% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$35 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage593d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $663 −$77 -12%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $932 −$58 -6%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $172 −$170 -99%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 05 $799 +$132 +16%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik Apr 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $5 +$16 +317%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $105 −$3 -2%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 +$10 +52%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $50 +$28 +57%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Apr 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-02? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-02? Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Bublik Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-21? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 3 ET? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 31 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET? Mar 31 $18 +$3 +19%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 31 $73 −$73 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 31 $10 +$26 +265%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $20 +$49 +243%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $20 +$20 +100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 04 $373 −$4 -1%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Mar 04 $20 −$14 -72%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 04 $20 +$17 +84%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $20 +$37 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$7 +13%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 25 $500 −$30 -6%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 06 $40 +$31 +77%
Flames vs. Bruins Jan 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 08 $2 +$7 +334%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 02 $6 +$3 +48%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-02? Oct 02 $2 +$4 +170%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jul 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 15 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Novak Djokovic win a Major in 2025? Jun 21 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 17 $159 +$13 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $586 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $663 6d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $669 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 28¢ $18 11d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 12¢ $15 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 53¢ $172 11d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $205 11d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $932 12d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 72¢ $462 12d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 73¢ $469 12d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 61¢ $799 21d
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $50 64d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 67d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 68d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 68d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $78 68d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 63¢ $50 68d
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 68d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 68d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 68d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 68d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 68d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 25¢ $125 78d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 78d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 33¢ $69 78d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 83¢ $102 81d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 81d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 81d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 56¢ $40 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records