trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 81¢ | $7,494 | $8,593 | +$1,098 (+15%) |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 22¢ | $4,894 | $2,224 | −$2,670 (-55%) |
| Will "Brian Ronan" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will "Walter Trarbach" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meeting? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will "Adam Fisher" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Brian Ronan" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will "Walter Trarbach" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will "Adam Fisher" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 12 | $11,061 | +$1,440 | +13% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $3,262 | +$75 | +2% |
| Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony | Jun 08 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? | Jun 07 | $1,365 | +$52 | +4% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $5,801 | +$104 | +2% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $2,067 | +$16 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? | Jun 02 | $1,999 | +$68 | +3% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | Jun 02 | $15,941 | +$287 | +2% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | Jun 02 | $2,551 | +$191 | +8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 01 | $34 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? | May 31 | $2,529 | +$36 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? | May 30 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during | May 30 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? | May 30 | $105 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? | May 30 | $2,338 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | May 30 | $9,101 | +$456 | +5% |
| Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | May 28 | $1,805 | +$123 | +7% |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | May 28 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Cabinet meeting? | May 28 | $35 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meetin | May 27 | $6 | −$6 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -47.4% | -52.4% | 50% | 12% | -3.1% |
| ≤30d | 23 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 78% | 4% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 78% | 4% | -5.4% |
| all | 23 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 78% | 4% | -5.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -26.5% | 4% | -5.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -33.6% | 0% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -40.0% | 0% | -22.7% |
| 20% | -45.9% | 0% | -30.3% |