Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7cff…5168 weather 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%401W / 23L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$47
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$55
other 7% −$8
politics 2% −$2
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 381 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 381 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 424 -0.1% -9.7% 95% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$5,592
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses401 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)424 / 448
History coverage512d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $340 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $256 $256 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $163 $163 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 18? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 18? Jun 19 $420 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 18? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 19 $425 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 19 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June Jun 19 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $245 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $387 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $510 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 18 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1,113 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $484 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $19 17m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 19m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 54m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $340 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $335 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $106 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $163 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $99 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $65 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $138 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $256 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $360 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $13 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $180 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $180 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $240 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $430 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $430 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,592.29 · official $5,592.29 (match) · 1212 history records