Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d00…24ce other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$8
tech 19% +$8
economics 13% −$3
sports 12% +$4
finance 10% −$7
world 4% −$4
weather 4% −$3
politics 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.5% -3.7% 50% 44% -11.8%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 41% -14.3%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 41% -14.3%
all 17 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 41% -14.3%
10% -18.0% 35% -22.5%
15% -25.9% 24% -30.0%
20% -33.2% 24% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 82¢ 70¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-14%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +183%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -55%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $7 +$5 +83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W Jun 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $2 +$3 +222%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 1h
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 59¢ $9 8h
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 23h
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 36h
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage BUY No 90¢ $18 2d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 5d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote BUY Yes 89¢ $9 6d
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6d
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 6d
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple W BUY Yes 74¢ $15 7d
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 7d
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? BUY No 45¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $2 7d
Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY No 45¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 8d
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.22 · official $84.37 · 47 history records