Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d02…1bb8 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$6
other 35% +$6
sports 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.9% -14.0% 21% 21% -3.1%
≤30d 29 -4.9% -14.0% 21% 21% -3.1%
≤90d 29 -4.9% -14.0% 21% 21% -3.1%
all 29 -4.9% -14.0% 21% 21% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 21% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 17% -12.4%
15% -29.7% 17% -20.9%
20% -36.6% 14% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$4 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$18 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $14 +$36 +251%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $7 −$3 -38%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$3 -50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -35%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $13 −$2 -14%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$23 +205%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records