Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7d02…7ff4 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$515 (-16%) realized −$515 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$682
7 days−$682
14 days−$682
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$400
politics 22% −$107
crypto 7% −$107
finance 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -92.0% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.8%
≤30d 3 -26.2% -33.2% 33% 33% -37.7%
≤90d 11 -20.9% -28.4% 45% 27% -27.2%
all 11 -20.9% -28.4% 45% 27% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 27% -27.2%
10% -35.3% 18% -34.2%
15% -41.5% 9% -40.6%
20% -47.3% 9% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$149 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage34d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $741 −$682 -92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $575 +$167 +29%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 08 $681 −$107 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 28 $677 +$106 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $57 −$28 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 27 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $105 −$62 -60%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $115 +$2 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $112 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $59 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $741 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 87¢ $597 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 89¢ $144 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 68¢ $575 19d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 18¢ $574 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 30d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 20¢ $681 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? SELL No 90¢ $671 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $15 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 75¢ $560 31d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 53¢ $10 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $28 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up $14 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records