Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d03…b8a6 crypto 1781 markets active 2d ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,617 (-9%) realized −$1,617 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%1092W / 838L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$309
crypto 50% −$763
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -61.0% -64.7% 23% 23% -84.5%
≤30d 611 -26.8% -33.7% 46% 45% -48.9%
≤90d 1730 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 54% -30.9%
all 1930 -13.0% -21.2% 57% 54% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 54% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 46% -35.8%
15% -35.7% 34% -42.0%
20% -42.0% 22% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1092 / 838
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1930 / 1781
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1930 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Ursa (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qual Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - ESL Challen Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$31 -280%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$22 -236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Nova Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Daegu Pegasus vs. Sonic Boom Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Seoul Thunders vs. Seoul Knights Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$34 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $3 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $21 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $9 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $16 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $11 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 60¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records