Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d04…ebde crypto 442 markets active 21h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%348W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$13
14 days+$40
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$6
politics 15% −$2
other 12% −$3
sports 12% +$12
world 7% +$11
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 75% +11.4%
≤30d 47 +7.2% -3.0% 83% 34% -5.5%
≤90d 214 +1.3% -8.3% 94% 8% -8.9%
all 440 +0.5% -9.1% 79% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses348 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)440 / 442
History coverage143d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $7 +$9 +119%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$10 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $9 +$14 +154%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $7 +$13 +180%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 +$7 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 02 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $14 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 5.5 May 29 $16 −$12 -77%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 29 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $5 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 24h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 35h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 86¢ $11 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 6d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 82¢ $7 7d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 39¢ $9 7d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $10 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $7 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ $5 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $5 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 72¢ $9 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 52¢ $7 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $8 10d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $9 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $7 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.07 · official $11.07 (match) · 1894 history records